Tropical Storm Delta

Storm Name Region Date Time Report #
Tropical Storm Delta Gulf Coast Florida to Texas 10/5/2020 5:00 AM 1

Current Situation

Summary
Flood Zone Disaster Recovery Solutions is currently monitoring this system. According to the latest forecast from The National Weather Service:

·       The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane.

·       SATCON estimates suggest that the cyclone is close to tropical storm status.

Storm Type Tropical Depression
Maximum Sustained Winds 40 MPH
Movement WNW @ 9MPH
Current Location 17.0 NORTH 78.2 WEST
Geographic Reference Southwest of Jamaica
Landfall Estimate 10/9/2020 – 10/10/2020
Nearest US threat and Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds (>39 mph) in the US Key West 5% chance in the next 36 hours, 7% in the next 48 hours

SWFL Naples to Venice 2-4% chance in the next 48 hours

Tampa 2% chance in the next 72 hours

Current Advisories While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
Recommended Actions
·       Continue to monitor developments from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

·       Follow the advice given by local emergency officials

·       Coordinate any protective action response if needed

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
Cumulative Probability of Receiving Tropical Storm-Force Winds (%) in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Florida

Pensacola: 34%

Pensacola NAS: 41%

Destin: 28%

Panama City:  25%

Tallahassee: 12%

St. Marks/Apalachicola: 11%

Cedar Key: 6%

Tampa Bay: 4%

Venice/Sarasota: 6%

Naples: 6%

Gainesville: 3%

Jacksonville: 3%

Marathon: 8%

Key West: 14%

Whiting Field: 32%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Tropical Storm-Force Winds (%) in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Alabama

Louisiana

Mississippi

Mobile AL: 42%

Birmingham AL: 19%

Montgomery AL: 23%

Gulfport MS: 47%

Stennis MS: 50%

Jackson MS: 33%

Keesler AFB(Biloxi) MS: 53%

Buras LA: 55%

New Orleans LA: 55%

Baton Rouge LA: 48%

Morgan City LA: 55%

Alexandria LA: 29%

Lafayette LA: 41%

New Iberia LA: 45%

Shreveport LA: 11%

Fort Polk LA: 25%

Lake Charles LA: 31%

Cameron LA: 41%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Tropical Storm-Force Winds (%) in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Texas

Jasper TX: 19%

Kountze TX: 19%

Port Arthur TX: 25%

Galveston TX: 25%

Houston TX: 12%

San Antonio TX:

Freeport TX: 12%

High Island TX: 21%

Matagorda TX: 13%

Port O’Connor TX: 11%

Rockport TX: 4%

Corpus Christi TX: 3%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Tropical Storm-Force Winds (%) in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Georgia

Augusta GA: 3%

Atlanta GA: 9%

Waycross GA: 4%

Savannah GA:

Kings Bay GA: 3%

Columbus GA: 14%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Hurricane-Force Winds (%), in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Florida

Pensacola: 3%

Destin: 2%

Panama City: 2%

 St. Marks/Apalachicola: 1%

Whiting Field: 3%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Hurricane-Force Winds (%), in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Alabama

Louisiana

Mississippi

Mobile AL: 6%

Montgomery AL: 2%

Gulfport MS: 7%

Stennis MS: 9%

Jackson MS: 3%

New Orleans LA: 12%

Baton Rouge LA: 9%

Morgan City LA: 10%

Alexandria LA: 3%

Lafayette LA: 8%

New Iberia LA: 10%

Fort Polk LA: 1%

Lake Charles LA: 4%

Cameron LA: 7%

Cumulative Probability of Receiving Hurricane-Force Winds (%), in the next 120 hours or 5-6 days.

Texas

Kountze TX: 1%

Port Arthur TX: 2%

Galveston TX: 3%

High Island TX: 2%

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this document is based on updates from the National Weather Service. This update is for general information only and not to be used for any official forecast. It should not be used in place guidance from official sources. Flood Zone is not responsible for inaccurate maps, data, or information in this update.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone

Tropical depression 26 forecast cone

Key Messages

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week.

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds

Earliest Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.

Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds

Most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds

Most Likely Arrival Time: the graphic that identifies the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. This graphic would be more appropriate for users who are willing to risk not having completed all their preparations before the storm arrives.

All data provided courtesy of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and The National Hurricane Center.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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