Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week.
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds
Most Likely Arrival Time: the graphic that identifies the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. This graphic would be more appropriate for users who are willing to risk not having completed all their preparations before the storm arrives.